Last updated on 2023-12-22
I got a hunch. . .
notice what happens after the peak yield curve inversion – the highs in the stock market, and then bottoms about 1 year later. . . Concern right now is predicting the high within +/-2 months and modifying my positions accordingly.
Dotcom Bust
March 2000 – Peak Inversion
August 2000 – Last High of S&P 500 (5 months later)
July 2002 – Bottom of S&P 500 (23 months after High)
Great Recession
November 2006 – Peak Inversion
October 2007 – Last High of S&P 500 (11 months later)
March 2009 – Bottom of S&P 500 (17 months after High)
Current Situation
July 2023 – Peak Inversion
Estimate of 12/23 to 06/24 – Last High of S&P 500
Estimate of 08/25 to 02/26 – Bottom of S&P 500