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Recession coming 2024 between March & October

Last updated on 2023-12-22

I got a hunch. . .

Shiller PE Chart

10 to 2 year yield spread

S&P 500 Chart

notice what happens after the peak yield curve inversion – the highs in the stock market, and then bottoms about 1 year later. . . Concern right now is predicting the high within +/-2 months and modifying my positions accordingly.

Dotcom Bust

March 2000 – Peak Inversion

August 2000 – Last High of S&P 500 (5 months later)

July 2002 – Bottom of S&P 500 (23 months after High)

Great Recession

November 2006 – Peak Inversion

October 2007 – Last High of S&P 500 (11 months later)

March 2009 – Bottom of S&P 500 (17 months after High)

Current Situation

July 2023 – Peak Inversion

Estimate of 12/23 to 06/24 – Last High of S&P 500

Estimate of 08/25 to 02/26 – Bottom of S&P 500